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Trump’s threats to allies deepen U.S. isolation

One month before the Americans launched their military offensive against Iran, the U.S.’ most vital global partners convened at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and openly scrutinized the reliability of the U.S. as a trusted ally.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned the other world leaders and prominent business executives that they should resist the urge to “go along to get along, to accommodate, to avoid trouble, to hope that compliance will buy safety.”

Prime Minister Carney stated clearly: “It won’t.”

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Russia wants to destroy NATO. Trump’s presidency has made it possible

The Russian “elite,” as Withold Rodkiewicz, a security expert at the Center for East European Studies at the University of Warsaw, calls them, know they’re not winning the war, and Ukraine’s increasingly effective attacks on oil and commercial infrastructure have the potential to destabilize the Kremlin’s grip on power.

“The analysis that’s around in Moscow is that the main reason that Ukrainians are able to resist is because they are supplied from the West,” he said, adding that nothing short of total victory in Ukraine will satisfy the Kremlin, reports Murray Brewster at CBC News.

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Canada has leverage in this trade war against the U.S.

Christopher Ragan, the founding director of McGill University’s Max Bell School of Public Policy and former chair of Canada’s Ecofiscal Commission put it this way: “Canada is in a set of negotiations with a party that appears to be unpredictable, volatile, so I don’t think anybody really knows what’s going to work here.”

Don Drummond, former chief economist for TD Bank, said if Canadians are willing to suffer the consequences, there are plenty of ways to punch back at the U.S., writes Peter Zimonjic at CBC News.

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Mark Carney is one of the few world leaders to stand up to the US president. His former colleagues are not surprised

The unlikely transformation of an economist and central banker with no prior electoral experience into a powerful global politician has bucked precedent and expectations. But Carney has settled into the role he warned was necessary for the country, that of a wartime leader standing up to an erratic and vindictive adversary who seems hellbent on subjugating Canada.

“We cannot accept what they have offered, and we will not give what they have asked,” he said.

For those who have worked with the demanding – and, at times, temperamental – central banker, such a calculated refusal to accede to a bad deal comes as little surprise.

The Guardian: ‘You’re at war when you get attacked’: Mark Carney shows combative nature in face-off with Trump

Trump Is copying Putin’s losing playbook, attacking Canada and allies

The White House approached the meetings less as a negotiation between two partners than as an effort to force tribute from a vassal. Trump portrayed his decision to change the previously agreed terms of trade between the two countries as a righting of past wrongs. But in reality, it’s part of something much more profound: a U.S. effort to ensure its economic interests and physical security in the Western Hemisphere by coercion, rather than through alliances and soft power.

This is further underpinned by an ideology that assumes the U.S. has a natural right to correct what Trump and his supporters consider aberrations of geopolitical history. So, Greenland should naturally belong to the U.S., and would already if not for some absurd American decisions at the end of World War II. Canada isn’t a real country, but rightly the 51st US state. The Gulf of Mexico was really the Gulf of America all along — and now, Lake Ontario is Lake America, too. If we’re to believe Prime Minister Mark Carney about why the U.S.-Canada talks collapsed, it’s because Washington made last-minute demands to dictate Canada’s domestic language policies and destroy its car-manufacturing industry.

Bloomberg: Trump Is Copying Putin’s Losing Playbook With Canada

Bloomberg article is also archived.

Who’s calling the shots in Trump’s trade team

Prime Minister Mark Carney, explaining why Canada decided to abandon the talks, pointed to disunity among the US negotiators. The White House has denied claims of division between Greer and Lutnick, but seasoned commentators are skeptical.

“Lutnick viewed all this as his turf, and here is Greer, who is the designated guy to be effectively the trade minister if you think about it in the context of other countries, conducting the negotiations,” said William Reinsch, a senior adviser to the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former undersecretary for commerce. “It appears Greer was willing to go farther than Lutnick was.

The Guardian: As US-Canada tensions flare, who’s calling the shots in Trump’s trade team?

Trump’s inner circle is shrinking

The list of departures is topped by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt and deputy chief of staff James Blair, who departed in April. But it includes critical Trump advisers who are photographed more rarely: James Braid, director of legislative affairs, is departing next month; David Warrington is also about to step down as White House counsel.

Inner circle members still at his side include chief of staff Susie Wiles, deputy chief of staff for policy Stephen Miller, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and communications director Steven Cheung.

As power consolidates among the remaining players, one administration official familiar with the scenario said, “the people that have been with POTUS the longest will benefit.”

Semafor: Trump’s White House inner circle is shrinking

This Semafor article is also archived.

Russia torments Kyiv with nonstop waves of drones

Russia has turned to a terrifying new tactic in its assaults on Ukraine, launching nonstop waves of armed drones in recent days into busy areas of the capital, Kyiv. The relentless attacks have left residents exhausted and on edge as air raid sirens bellow nearly constantly.

With Moscow firing drone after drone into Kyiv, including many powered with jet engines that help them fly so fast they are difficult to intercept, many in the capital have begun to accept that they may be facing a new phase of the war.

This period threatens to be more dangerous and unpredictable for Kyiv than any since the first weeks of Russia’s 2022 invasion.

NY Times: Russia Torments Kyiv With New Tactic of Nonstop Waves of Drones

NYT article is also archived.

Treating Canada as an enemy leaves the U.S. weaker in every way

It’s not difficult to see why Trump would want a trade war with Canada.

He has lost his war with Iran, but the depth of his humiliation of our country has not yet set in. Best to change the subject while possible to a conflict that he thinks he can win by the midterms.

Except that he can’t.

As Trump proves again and again, it is entirely possible to be both morally wrong and geopolitically weak. And his weakness becomes our weakness, his nihilism our national embarrassment, or really tragedy.

Read Timothy Snyder‘s post: Our Trade War Against Ourselves

Paul Krugman: Why Canada will win the trade war

Canada backs $161 billion Defence, Security and Resilience Bank to finance allied rearmament

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney supports a new global defense bank called the Defence, Security and Resilience Bank (DSRB), which aims to help allied countries rearm. The bank is looking to raise around €100 billion (C$161 billion) to provide low-cost loans to governments and defence contractors for military projects. It will also guarantee loans for smaller, riskier firms. So far, Canada, along with Albania, Belgium, Greece, Latvia, Luxembourg, Romania, Turkey, and Ukraine, has expressed support for the initiative.

As of August, the DSRB had secured about €5 billion in commitments but aims for €20 billion in paid-in capital and an additional €80 billion available when necessary. However, major economies like Germany and Britain have not yet committed, which raises concerns about the DSRB’s ability to achieve the triple-A credit rating necessary for the lowest funding costs.

Note: The little known U.S. Defense Department’s Office of Strategic Capital was founded by the Biden administration to provide loans that bolster the U.S. defence industry.

Read the article at Modern Diplomacy

Reuters: The battle to build a global defence bank

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